Monsoon 2026 ends 12.6% short, India's driest season in 11 years
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Five states have declared drought, kharif sowing is down and the rice estimate has been cut. Eastern and north-eastern India had its lowest rain since 1901.
Reporting as of 1 October 2026, 1.30pm IST.
India's southwest monsoon ended with a 12.6% rainfall deficit, the driest season in 11 years and the fourth driest this century, Scroll.in reported, citing the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The monsoon deficit in 2026 totalled 759.4 mm against an average of 868.6 mm to 30 September.
Strong El Nino conditions contributed, Scroll.in and Tech Times said.
Eastern and north-eastern India had the least rain on record
Eastern and north-eastern India got its lowest rain since 1901, Scroll.in reported, with 1,017.1 mm. Tech Times puts that region 26% below normal.
The Southern Peninsula had its fourth-lowest rain since 1901, at 542 mm. August alone brought 213.9 mm, a 16.1% deficit, Tech Times reported.
The shortfall has already reached the states.
Five states have declared drought
Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rajasthan have declared drought, Tech Times reported. In Maharashtra, 74% of subdistricts are covered, from a single source, Scroll.in.
Tech Times also says 282 districts are affected and 6.11 lakh hectares of crop area is damaged, again from one outlet. A central team is due to assess Karnataka's drought on 3 October.
Crops take the hit
Kharif acreage stands at 110.8 million hectares, down 1.2%, Tech Times reported. It says the rice production estimate has been cut to 147 million tonnes from 154 million.
Scroll.in and Tech Times differ in wording: one says driest in 11 years, the other weakest since 2015. They describe the same thing. Times of India's headline puts the deficit at 13%, calling it a drought year.
What it could mean for food prices
Gaura Sengupta, an IDFC First Bank economist, said a deficient monsoon "can push inflation to 5.5% if food inflation spikes", as Tech Times quoted her. That is one economist's view, not an official forecast.
The reports we read give no reservoir levels or official food-price estimate.
What happens next
The IMD expects the northeast monsoon over the Southern Peninsula from 15 to 21 October, Scroll.in reported. Most of India is expected to get below-normal rain from October to December.
This story was produced with AI assistance and reviewed, edited and verified by the reporter before publication.
Covered by 2 outlets across the spectrum: 50% left, 50% center, 0% right.
Who is covering this story
- Left-leaning (1): Scroll.in
- Center (1): Tech Times