Marco Rubio India visit: Rubio says US trade deal is very close
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Latest updates
- : Rubio said on the record that the US is very close to finalising a trade deal with India, a day before his Mumbai talks with Jaishankar
- : Trump issued a Russia sanctions waiver on 16 October; Rubio said Trump wants 60 days to review the 100% tariff law; experts say the waiver is reversible
- : MEA confirmed Jaishankar-Rubio talks in Mumbai on 20 October and named the agenda; Rahul Gandhi and Jairam Ramesh criticised the US envoy's remark
A day before his Mumbai talks with Jaishankar, Rubio said the US is very close to finalising a trade deal with India. Trump's Russia sanctions waiver still holds a 100% tariff law on a 60-day review.
Original report
Marco Rubio said on 19 October 2026 that the US is trying to finalise a trade deal with India and is "very close", Business Today reported (Business Today, 2026). Nirmala Sitharaman had earlier said the talks "reached a plateau".
The remark comes a day before Rubio meets External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in Mumbai on 20 October. Until now the "very close" line came from US ambassador Sergio Gor; this is the Secretary of State saying it himself. See how every outlet covered it.
Rubio on trade and Russian oil
Rubio tied the deal to the same question that hangs over the Russia sanctions waiver: India's energy needs. He said the US waived Russian-energy sanctions because of their effect on global supply and prices, Business Today reported (Business Today, 2026).
- On the deal: "We're very close to doing that," Rubio said.
- On India's position: "Every country has a complex set of factors that it has to take into account."
- Not yet known: whether any trade text will be signed during the visit.
The waiver he referred to is what keeps the tariff threat on hold for now.
The Russia sanctions waiver behind the talks
The Russia sanctions waiver President Donald Trump issued on 16 October 2026 sets aside, for now, a US law that allows tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, including India and China, The Federal reported (The Federal, 2026a). Rubio said on 17 October that Trump wants 60 days to assess how the law would affect other countries.
For India's garment exporters it is a reprieve, not an all-clear. The waiver is not India-specific and can be reversed, and the law's provisions stay in place, former diplomat Kanwal Sibal and the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said, Free Press Journal reported (Free Press Journal, 2026). GTRI says 700,000 garment workers would be directly affected by potential tariffs.
What the waiver covers, and what it does not
The waiver applies to the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which lets the US put tariffs of up to 100% on the five biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas (The Federal, 2026a).
- Not India-specific: "This waiver is not India-specific," Sibal said (Free Press Journal, 2026).
- Reversible: GTRI said the waiver can be undone, which leaves India uncertain; the law's provisions remain.
- 60 days: Rubio said Trump wants 60 days to assess the law's impact. The reports we read do not say whether the 60 days pauses tariffs, sanctions or both.
Rubio also explained why India is still buying.
Rubio: India cannot switch from Russian oil in a day
Rubio said countries like India are "still getting substantial energy from Russia" because it is hard to pivot in a day, The Federal reported. He pointed to the US-Iran war, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Russia-Ukraine conflict (The Federal, 2026a).
That matters for the second stop on his trip. Rubio goes on to Jamnagar after Mumbai; Reliance's refinery there is among the top three refiners of Russian Urals crude, The Hindu reported (The Hindu, 2026).
Energy policy aside, the numbers that hang on the review are in garments.
What it means for garment exporters
GTRI puts potential garment export losses at $5.33 billion, with 700,000 workers directly affected, Free Press Journal reported (Free Press Journal, 2026).
- The window: by our arithmetic, 60 days from the 16 October waiver runs to about 15 December, if the review clock started then. No report we read gives an end date.
- The risk: because the waiver is reversible, exporters cannot treat the 100% tariff threat as gone, GTRI's warning suggests.
The next test is the Mumbai meeting.
What we know
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has confirmed the date, the city and four agenda items for the Jaishankar-Rubio talks (Rediff, 2026; National Herald, 2026).
- Date and place: talks in Mumbai on 20 October (Rediff, 2026).
- Agenda, per the MEA: energy, trade, defence and emerging technologies. The Federal added critical minerals and Russian oil (The Federal, 2026).
- Rubio's trip: 17-22 October, including Samarkand, Rediff and National Herald report; Scroll puts the India leg at 19-22 October (Scroll.in, 2026), and Free Press Journal at 19-20 October.
- Jaishankar's other guests: he hosts the UAE's deputy prime minister and foreign minister on 19-20 October (Rediff, 2026).
On trade, Rubio now matches his ambassador. US ambassador Sergio Gor said "We are very close to landing it," Rediff reported; on 19 October Rubio said the US was "very close", Business Today reported. No report we read says any trade text will be signed during the visit.
At home, the argument was about who announced the meeting.
The political reaction
Rahul Gandhi said Rubio "has summoned his employee to Mumbai", National Herald reported, reading the jibe as a veiled warning (National Herald, 2026).
- Congress leader Jairam Ramesh asked since when Indian ministers' meetings had been "outsourced" to US ambassadors (Scroll.in, 2026).
- National Herald says Gor announced the meeting before the MEA did (National Herald, 2026).
- Headlines in Hindustan Times, Business Standard and The New Indian Express say the government rejected the criticism. We could not open those reports.
What we don't know yet
- Whether the waiver covers existing US tariffs on India or only the new law's tariffs.
- The legal form of the pause, and whether the 60 days applies to tariffs, sanctions or both.
- The venue and time of the Mumbai talks, and whether any trade text will be signed.
- The MEA's full reply to the criticism.
What happens next
- 19-20 October: Jaishankar hosts the UAE delegation (Rediff, 2026).
- 20 October: Jaishankar and Rubio meet in Mumbai; Rubio then goes to Jamnagar (Rediff, 2026; National Herald, 2026).
- About 15 December: the end of a 60-day review counted from 16 October, by our arithmetic; no official date has been given.
Questions people are asking
Is the US tariff threat on India over?
No. The waiver sets the law's tariff power aside for now, but its provisions remain and it can be reversed, GTRI and Kanwal Sibal said, Free Press Journal reported.
How long does the Russia sanctions waiver last?
Rubio said on 17 October that Trump wants 60 days to assess the law's impact, The Federal reported. No end date has been published.
What did Rubio say about India and Russian oil?
That countries like India are still getting substantial energy from Russia because it is hard to pivot in a day, The Federal reported.
When will Jaishankar meet Rubio?
On 20 October 2026 in Mumbai, the MEA said (Rediff, 2026).
Will India and the US sign a trade deal during the visit?
Not known. Rubio and Gor both said a deal was very close, but no report we read says any text will be signed (Business Today, 2026; Rediff, 2026).
References
- Business Today (2026) India-US trade deal close to being final; complex set of factors involved: Marco Rubio. Business Today. Available at: India-US trade deal close to being final, says Rubio (Accessed: 19 October 2026).
- The Federal (2026) US ambassador Gor's 'expect' remark stirs up political storm over Jaishankar-Rubio meeting. The Federal. Available at: Gor's 'expect' remark stirs up political storm (Accessed: 16 October 2026).
- The Federal (2026a) 'India cannot stop buying Russian oil overnight', says Rubio as Trump reviews sanctions. The Federal. Available at: India cannot stop buying Russian oil overnight, says Rubio (Accessed: 18 October 2026).
- Free Press Journal (2026) Donald Trump's Tariff Waiver Not India-Specific, Says Kanwal Sibal As Experts Flag Reversal Risk. Free Press Journal. Available at: Trump's tariff waiver not India-specific (Accessed: 18 October 2026).
- The Hindu (2026) Marco Rubio to skip Delhi, visit Mumbai and Jamnagar next week. The Hindu. Available at: Marco Rubio to skip Delhi, visit Mumbai and Jamnagar (Accessed: 15 October 2026).
- National Herald (2026) Rahul's Rubio jibe at Modi carries veiled warning: 'Unless you want me to'. National Herald. Available at: Rahul's Rubio jibe at Modi carries veiled warning (Accessed: 16 October 2026).
- Rediff (2026) Jaishankar to host Rubio in Mumbai on Oct 20 for key India-US talks. Rediff. Available at: Jaishankar to host Rubio in Mumbai on Oct 20 (Accessed: 16 October 2026).
- Scroll.in (2026) Rubio has 'summoned his employee' to Mumbai, says Rahul Gandhi ahead of US state secretary's visit. Scroll.in. Available at: Rubio has 'summoned his employee' to Mumbai, says Rahul Gandhi (Accessed: 16 October 2026).
How we did this
For the 19 October update we read Business Today for Rubio's on-record trade remarks and set them against what our 18 October version had: Gor's "very close" line and Sitharaman's "plateau" remark. We kept Rubio's words in quotes and did not add a signing date that no source gives.
For the 18 October update we read the 17 October reports in The Federal, which carries Rubio's remarks and the law's terms, and Free Press Journal, which carries Kanwal Sibal's and GTRI's caveats and the garment figures. We separated what the waiver does from what experts say about it, and counted the 60-day window ourselves from the 16 October waiver date. The trip dates differ between outlets, so we give each.
We read the MEA confirmation as reported on 16 October 2026 by Rediff and National Herald, and the reaction in The Federal and Scroll. We kept the MEA's and the US envoy's statements apart from politicians' comments, checked which agenda items came from the MEA, and reconciled the trip dates with our 15 October report, which drew on The Hindu. We could not open the MEA's full reply or the Hindustan Times, Business Standard and New Indian Express reports, so we used their headlines only.
This story was produced, reviewed, edited and verified by the reporter before publication, with AI assistance where required.
Covered by 26 outlets across the spectrum: 23% left, 42% center, 31% right.
Who is covering this story
- Left-leaning (5): The Hindu, The Federal, Scroll.in, Greater Kashmir, Indian Express
- Center (7): Rediff, Free Press Journal, Business Today, The Hindu BusinessLine, Deccan Herald, ABP Live English, Hindustan Times
- Right-leaning (4): Times Now, India Today, Deccan Chronicle, India TV English
- Not yet rated (1): National Herald
Sources
- Marco Rubio to skip Delhi, visit Mumbai and Jamnagar next week — The Hindu (left-leaning) ·
- US ambassador Gor’s ‘expect’ remark stirs up political storm over Jaishankar-Rubio meeting — The Federal (left-leaning) ·
- Rahul’s Rubio jibe at Modi carries veiled warning: ‘Unless you want me to’ — National Herald (not yet rated) ·
- Rubio has ‘summoned his employee’ to Mumbai, says Rahul Gandhi ahead of US state secretary’s visit — Scroll.in (left-leaning) ·
- Jaishankar to host Rubio in Mumbai on Oct 20 for key India-US talks — Rediff (center) ·
- Donald Trump — Free Press Journal (center) ·
- 'India cannot stop buying Russian oil overnight', says Rubio as Trump reviews sanctions — The Federal (left-leaning) ·
- India US trade deal close to being final; complex set of factors involved: Marco Rubio - BusinessToday — Business Today (center) ·
- EAM Jaishankar, US Secretary of State Rubio to hold crucial talks in Mumbai — The Hindu BusinessLine (center) ·
- EAM Jaishankar, US Secretary of State Rubio to hold crucial talks in Mumbai — Deccan Herald (center) ·
- Russia Gets Relief, Ukraine Awaits Missiles: Marco Rubio Addresses Growing Questions Over US Support — Times Now (right-leaning) ·
- Can Reliance help bring Venezuelan oil back to market? Rubio says talks scheduled for Wednesday — Business Today (center) ·
- India-US Trade Deal Very Close, Says Marco Rubio Amid Talks With Jaishankar — India Today (right-leaning) ·
- 'We’re Very, Very Close': Marco Rubio Says India-US Trade Deal Nears Finalisation Ahead Of Meeting With Jaishankar | VIDEO — Free Press Journal (center) ·
- Marco Rubio meets S Jaishankar in Mumbai, pays tribute to 26/11 victims — India Today (right-leaning) ·
- Rubio and Jaishankar Hold Talks in Mumbai To Finalize Trade Deal — Deccan Chronicle (right-leaning) ·
- Rubio, Jaishankar discuss energy security, defence ties amid continuing friction in India-US ties — Greater Kashmir (left-leaning, AI-estimated) ·
- Marco Rubio Meets Jaishankar in Mumbai, Eyes Trade Deal, Hails Strong Strategic Ties — India Today (right-leaning) ·
- Rubio meets Jaishankar in Mumbai; discusses energy security, defence cooperation to boost India-US ties — India TV English (right-leaning) ·
- ‘Very, Very Close’: Marco Rubio Says India-US Trade Deal Near Finalisation, Announcement Expected Soon — ABP Live English (center) ·
- ‘Right to defend ourselves’: Jaishankar says India expects partners to show zero tolerance on terrorism — Hindustan Times (center) ·
- ‘Zero Tolerance For Terror’: Jaishankar To Rubio At Freedom 250 Reception In Mumbai — ABP Live English (center) ·
- India, UAE And US Hold Talks On Energy And Connectivity During Mumbai Trilateral Meeting — Deccan Chronicle (right-leaning) ·
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio: ‘99% work done (on trade deal)… tariffs and visa curbs not targeted at India’ — Indian Express (left-leaning) ·
- With Rubio in India, Trump says trade pact 'pretty close'; suggests it 'could be much different kind of deal' — Hindustan Times (center) ·
- US visa curbs not aimed at India, Rubio says, defends Trump's immigration reset — India Today (right-leaning) ·