Super El Nino and India in 2027: the last one, in 2015-16, cut rain to 86% of average
Published
NOAA declared El Nino conditions in June and said the event could reach historic strength. India's 2026 monsoon was already deficient. Here is what the last super El Nino did, and what is still unknown for 2027.
Original report
Reporting as of 14 October 2026.
Will a super El Nino hit India in 2027? As of 14 October 2026 no 2027 monsoon forecast exists, but the US agency NOAA declared El Nino conditions in June and said the event was likely to strengthen to historic levels, Outlook India reported.
The last super El Nino, in 2015-16, left India with 86% of its average rainfall (Outlook India, 2026). It arrives after a weak year: India's 2026 monsoon was deficient, as we reported in Monsoon 2026 ends 12.6% short, India's driest season in 11 years.
A super El Nino is the strongest kind of event
"Super" is the label for a very strong El Nino, and 2015-16 was the last one, Outlook India reported. The exact threshold NOAA uses was not in the material we read, so we do not give one.
Ken Graham, director of the US National Weather Service, cautioned against assuming a repeat: "Every El Nino is not the same; each one is unique." Still, the last one is the clearest guide India has.
In 2015-16, India got 86% of its average rain
India received 86% of its average monsoon rainfall in 2015-16, Outlook India reported. IMD's long-period average is 868.6 mm (Down To Earth, 2026).
86% of 868.6 mm is about 747 mm, a shortfall of roughly 122 mm. That is our arithmetic on the two sourced figures, not an IMD statement.
Before this season, IMD had forecast below-normal rain at 90% of the long-period average, with a 60% chance of a deficient monsoon, Down To Earth reported. Farms feel any shortfall first.
Farms and reservoirs were already on watch
About 90% of India's pulses and oilseeds area is rainfed, Down To Earth reported. In June the government flagged 150-200 districts as high-risk and ordered contingency plans, the same report said.
Reservoir storage stood at 63.232 billion cubic metres on 14 May 2026, down 8 BCM in two weeks, according to Down To Earth. What comes next depends on forecasts not yet issued.
What we don't know yet about 2027
IMD has not issued its winter outlook or its 2027 monsoon forecast. NOAA's strong event is expected to peak between October and December 2026, Outlook India reported.
How long it lasts into 2027, and whether it overlaps the 2027 monsoon, is not settled in the sources we read. The next IMD outlooks are the dates to watch.
Questions people are asking
What is a super El Nino?
A very strong El Nino event. The last one was in 2015-16, Outlook India reported.
Will the 2027 monsoon fail?
That is not known. IMD has not yet issued its 2027 monsoon outlook.
What happened to India's rain in the last super El Nino?
In 2015-16 India got 86% of its average rainfall, Outlook India reported.
Will this winter be warmer in India?
Not known yet. IMD's winter outlook has not been issued.
References
- Down To Earth (2026) India braces for El Nino: 200 high-risk districts. Down To Earth. Available at: India braces for El Nino: 200 high-risk districts (Accessed: 14 October 2026).
- Outlook India (2026) Super El Nino forms in Pacific. Outlook India. Available at: Super El Nino forms in Pacific (Accessed: 14 October 2026).
How we did this
We read Outlook India's report on NOAA's El Nino declaration and Down To Earth's report on the government's district contingency plans. We set the 2015-16 rainfall outcome against IMD's long-period average, did the arithmetic ourselves, and built the timeline in the chart.
The two outlets stressed different risks: Down To Earth the 200 districts and farm impact, Outlook India the chance of a record-hot 2027. We did not open NOAA's or IMD's own bulletins, so forecast details are as those outlets reported them.
This story was produced, reviewed, edited and verified by the reporter before publication, with AI assistance where required.
Covered by 2 outlets across the spectrum: 50% left, 50% center, 0% right.
Who is covering this story
- Left-leaning (1): Outlook India
- Center (1): Down To Earth